How it works

Every Division I men's basketball team has a price. Before each game the model sets an expected margin. After the game, the price moves by how far the result landed from it.

1 · Opening price

Each team opens the season at a price set by its preseason rating from Bart Torvik's T-Rank. An average Division I team opens at 100. The best open around 150 to 160.

See the board

2 · Expected margin

Before every game, the model sets an expected margin: the rating gap between the two teams, scaled to the pace both teams play, plus 3 points of home court. Ratings are frozen the Sunday before the game, so the bar is set before tip-off.

3 · The surprise

After the game, the surprise is how far the result landed from the bar. It is capped at 20 points, so running up the score only counts so much.

4 · The move

• A normal week moves a price about 2.5%. Teams play two or three games a week, and the games add up.
• A week's move is capped at 15%.
• Losing as the favorite costs extra. We call it MISSED GUIDANCE. Winning as the underdog earns the same bonus.
• Beating a non-Division I team moves a price 2% at most. Losing to one follows the normal rules, with no cap.
• No games that week means no move. We call it a halt.

5 · Conferences

A conference's average price is the average of its teams' prices, and its season % is the change since the preseason open.

6 · Spending vs Price (separate from the price)

The price only measures results. Spending vs Price compares it with money. The budget line is the price a given men's basketball budget usually buys. Each team gets the points it trades above or below that line. VALUE = 10+ points above, OVERVALUED = 10+ points below, FAIR in between. P/E sums it up in one number: 20 is par for the budget. Below 20 means the team gets more on the court than its budget usually buys. Above 20 means it gets less. Spending is each school's men's basketball operating expenses reported to the U.S. Dept. of Education (EADA), 2024-25. It does not include NIL or revenue sharing. 143 of 365 teams are matched so far. We never estimate. See the board

The lingo

• Ticker: a team's short name, like DUKE or UK.
• Price: where a team trades right now. Higher = stronger body of work.
• Season %: change since the preseason open. It measures results against preseason expectations. To compare teams directly, use Price.
• MISSED GUIDANCE: lost as the favorite.
• Upset win: won as the underdog.
• Halt: no games that week, no move.
• Spending vs Price: points above or below what a team's basketball budget usually buys. VALUE / FAIR / OVERVALUED.
• P/E: the price a team's budget usually buys, divided by its actual price, times 20. 20 = par, under 20 = cheap for what it produces, over 20 = expensive. N/R = not matched to a spending figure yet.

The fine print

All data comes from public sources (barttorvik.com and the U.S. Dept. of Education). No betting lines or odds go into the model. Entertainment only. Prices are not betting picks or investment advice, and there is nothing to buy.